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BSP Hints Off Cycle Hike May Be Delivered Tomorrow

PHILIPPINES

Focus has shifted to whether the BSP will hike rates tomorrow, which would be a move out of cycle by the central bank. BSP Governor Remolona gave a hawkish update yesterday per BBG, the Governor stated "If the data says inflation will go up very significantly and there’s a risk of affecting inflationary expectations, then we may go for an off-cycle hike as early as Thursday,” see this link for more details.

  • A move this Thursday would be ahead of the next scheduled policy meeting, which is due on November 16. It would also come ahead of the October CPI print, which is due on the 7th of November.
  • Governor Remolona had warned earlier that an out of cycle move could take place.
  • Spill over impact onto USD/PHP has been limited though. USD/PHP sits higher in the first part of trade today, last near 56.83, well within recent ranges.
  • Onshore equities are tracking higher, up 0.40% in the first part of trade today, although we are still close to recent lows near 6000 in index terms (last near 6063).
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