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BTPs outperform on political hopes

EGB SUMMARY
  • The Italian Senate confidence vote remains the talking point of the day. There is still no official outcome but a tweet sent by Sky tg24's Marco di Fonzo stated that the government had "great optimism" that it would win an outright majority, although cautioned that PD and IV sources expected the government to win but be short of an overall majority. BTP futures spiked on the tweet to 151.60, the highest level seen since Wednesday last week. We have since moved 20 pips off the high but remain around 35 pips higher on the day.
  • Elsewhere, France saw a record book size of over E75bln for its new 50-year May-72 OAT. The size of the transaction was set at E7bln, the top of our estimated E4-7bln range.
  • Bunds are lower and peripheral spreads tighter in line with general risk-positive sentiment. BTP-Bund spreads are over 4bp tighter on the day on the back of Italian political optimism.
  • Bund futures are down -0.19 today at 177.18 with 10y Bund yields up 1.4bp at -0.515% and Schatz yields up 0.8bp at -0.712%.
  • BTP futures are up 0.40 today at 151.47 with 10y yields down -3.0bp at 0.599% and 2y yields down -1.9bp at -0.337%.
  • OAT futures are down -0.06 today at 167.27 with 10y yields up 0.9bp at -0.296% and 2y yields down -0.1bp at -0.624%.

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