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Budget Deficit Smaller Than Projected In FY 21/22

CANADA
  • The budget deficit for the fiscal year ending Mar’22 came in at preliminary $96B.
  • It marks a sizeable improvement from the C$114B projected at the Budget published just on April 7, which in turn had been marked down from a previous forecast of C$144.5B as the economy has rebounded more strongly than expected from Covid.
  • It was driven by both revenue climbing 33% and program spending declining 21%, again with revisions due later in the year.
  • Relatively little reaction in GoCs, which have sold off circa 1bp since the data were published but it coincided with a similar move in Tsys. That could imply that markets don’t expect the improvement to continue ahead, i.e. with little change in issuance implications.
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