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Free AccessBulgaria Gov't Crisis Risks Pro-Putin Party Becoming Kingmakers
Bulgarian PM Kiril Petkov's gov't risks being ousted following the loss of its governing majority last week, raising the risk of a fourth set of legislative elections in just over a year. Based on recent opinion polling, far-right parties seen as sympathetic to Moscow could emerge in the position of kingmakers, with no parts seen as likely to win an overall majority in the National Assembly.
- The gov't lost its majority following the withdrawal of folk singer Slavi Trifonov's 'There Is Such a People' party (ITN) from the coalition over Petkov's plan not to veto the EU beginning accession talks with North Macedonia and Albania, both of with which Bulgaria has relatively frosty relations.
- Polls indicate that in the event of a snap election, Petkov's pro-EU anti-corruption 'We Continue the Change' party would lose ground to former PM Boyko Borisov's conservative GERB.
- Other small, liberal parties stand to lose ground to far-right nationalist parties. This includes the eurosceptic, pro-Putin 'Bulgarian Rise', founded by former defence minister Stefan Yanev. Yanev was dismissed in March when he used the Kremlin-backed term for Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a 'special operation'.
- While the EU has backed Petkov's stance towards Russia, Gazprom cutting off of gas supplies in April after Sofia refused to pay in roubles has clearly rattled a section of the population in a nation where sizable sections of society remain sympathetic to Russian aims.
- Should a snap election result in a gov't coming to office that is less committed to supporting Ukraine it would deal a notable blow to broad EU unity on the issue, pushing Bulgaria closer to nations that have been reluctant to engage in sanctions such as Hungary.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.