Bulgaria Gov't Crisis Risks Pro-Putin Party Becoming Kingmakers

Bulgarian PM Kiril Petkov's gov't risks being ousted following the loss of its governing majority last week, raising the risk of a fourth set of legislative elections in just over a year. Based on recent opinion polling, far-right parties seen as sympathetic to Moscow could emerge in the position of kingmakers, with no parts seen as likely to win an overall majority in the National Assembly.

• The gov't lost its majority following the withdrawal of folk singer Slavi Trifonov's 'There Is Such a People' party (ITN) from the coalition over Petkov's plan not to veto the EU beginning accession talks with North Macedonia and Albania, both of with which Bulgaria has relatively frosty relations.
• Polls indicate that in the event of a snap election, Petkov's pro-EU anti-corruption 'We Continue the Change' party would lose ground to former PM Boyko Borisov's conservative GERB.
• Other small, liberal parties stand to lose ground to far-right nationalist parties. This includes the eurosceptic, pro-Putin 'Bulgarian Rise', founded by former defence minister Stefan Yanev. Yanev was dismissed in March when he used the Kremlin-backed term for Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a 'special operation'.
• While the EU has backed Petkov's stance towards Russia, Gazprom cutting off of gas supplies in April after Sofia refused to pay in roubles has clearly rattled a section of the population in a nation where sizable sections of society remain sympathetic to Russian aims.
• Should a snap election result in a gov't coming to office that is less committed to supporting Ukraine it would deal a notable blow to broad EU unity on the issue, pushing Bulgaria closer to nations that have been reluctant to engage in sanctions such as Hungary.