Bulgarian Gov't Faces Confidence Vote; Pro-Russia Parties Gaining In Polls

The gov't of Bulgarian PM Kiril Petkov faces being ousted later today in a no-confidence vote taking place in the National Assembly. Should the vote of no confidence in Petkov's gov't go through it could lead to Bulgaria's fourth election since April 2021.

• Petkov's broad pro-EU coalition has fallen apart after the populist 'There Is Such A People' (ITN) party of folk singer Slavi Trifonov withdrew its support over a deal made by the gov't with that of North Macedonia to allow EU accession talks to begin for the latter.
• Following the withdrawal of ITN, the gov't no longer holds a majority and if it cannot secure the support of opposition deputies will be ousted.
• Opinion polls show a worrying trend for pro-EU politicians in Sofia and for Brussels, with ultranationalist parties and parties sympathetic to Moscow gaining some traction in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
• Should gov't collapse and fresh elections be called polls show former PM Boyko Borisov's conservative populist GERB leading and in the best position to form the next gov't. Party is broadly pro-EU, but in the past has formed coalitions with nationalist parties, which could present issues when deciding on EU sanctions on Russia.