Free Trial

Bulk Of Early Weakness Holds, Key Technical Levels Untouched

GILTS

Gilts have recovered from session lows, with the Dec 11 extremes in both futures and 10-Year yields remaining untested.

  • Futures last print -37 at 97.75, 18 ticks off the base of the early 54-tick range.
  • Cash yields are 2.0-3.5bp higher on the day, with a light steepening bias seen on the curve.
  • When it comes to the recent cross-market widening of gilts vs. peers (spreads are off widest levels of the day across the curve) we point to the combination of heightened expectations surrounding pre-election UK fiscal stimulus and data releases, in addition to the related feedthrough from both into BoE-dated OIS pricing, as the meaningful drivers.
  • Note that BoE-dated OIS now shows ~91bp of cuts through ’24, a little over 60bp off the late December dovish extremes.
  • The moderation in the BoE cuts priced through the end of ’24 has comfortably outstripped the comparative move in ECB pricing since the start of last week (by ~22bp).
  • SONIA futures are +0.5 to -5.0 through the blues. The reds are under the most pressure.
  • Looking ahead, only lower tier local data is due today, which will likely leave focus on wider market matters and headline flow (the latest ECB decision and U.S. data provide the scheduled risk events of note).
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Feb-245.200+1.3
Mar-245.183-0.5
May-245.092-9.6
Jun-244.969-21.8
Aug-244.783-40.4
Sep-244.618-56.9
Nov-244.417-77.0
Dec-244.277-91.0
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.