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Bull Flattening With 10Y Supply Headlining Otherwise Light Docket

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have set about unwinding yesterday’s bear steepening with a bull flattening today, with major benchmark yields broadly in the middle of yesterday’s ranges across the curve at typing. Fed expectations are little changed and a lack of data and Fedspeak could leave flow or headlines as a main driver until the 10Y auction, albeit in tomorrow’s CPI shadow (full preview here).
  • On the 10Y reopen, JPM noted late yesterday that with intermediate Treasuries looking rich to fair value and our Treasury Client Survey showing the most net longs in three months, demand is likely to remain muted and require a further concession from current levels.
  • 2YY -1.3bps at 4.235%, 5YY -3.8bps at 3.692%, 10YY -4.6bps at 3.572% and 30YY -5.7bps at 3.697%.
  • TYH3 trades 9+ ticks higher at 114-09+, moving further off yesterday’s low of 113-26+ (with support at the 50-day EMA of 113-12) but below resistance at Monday’s high of 114-23+.
  • Data: MBA weekly mortgage apps/rates (1200ET)
  • Bond issuance: US Tsy $32B 10Y Note reopen (91282CFV8) – 1300ET
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $36B 17W bill auction – 1130ET
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