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Bull Flatter With Corrective TY Bounce Amidst Low Volumes

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have bull flattened after yesterday’s Memorial Day closure, although it’s an increasingly level flattening as the front end catches up. The general bid has been spurred by softer than expected Spanish inflation rather than any particular catch-up of the sizeable EU FI rally seen yesterday. Today sees notably heavy bill issuance.
  • 2YY -5.6bp at 4.506%, 5YY -7.3bp at 3.854%, 10YY -7.7bp at 3.721%, 30YY -6.7bp at 3.894%.
  • 2s10s trade at -78bps off an overnight low of -82.96bps that had touched the lowest since Mar 10 early on in SVB-spillover.
  • TYM3 trades 18 ticks higher at 112-31 close to earlier highs of 113-00+ but which still haven’t troubled resistance at 113-12+ (May 25 high). The move higher is deemed a corrective bounce with still some focus on 111-31 (76.4% retrace of Mar 2-24 rally). Cumulative volumes of 125k track about half of recent averages.
  • Data: FHFA and S&P CoreLogic house prices for Mar (0900ET), Conf Board consumer survey May (1000ET), Dallas Fed mfg index May (1030ET).
  • Fedspeak: Barkin (’24 voter) at NABE webinar at 1300ET
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $63B 13W, $56B 26W bill auctions (1130ET), US Tsy $50B 161D CMB auction (1300ET)
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