Free Trial

Possible Delay to German State-by-State CPI


E-MINI S&P (H3): Bull Cycle Extends

Real-time Actionable Insight

Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.

Free Access

Bullard Adds To Fedspeak Pushing Terminal Close To Cycle Highs

  • Latest talk from Bullard (’22 voter) helps push Fed Funds implied rates to post-CPI highs for the Sept FOMC and just offs yesterday’s cycle highs further out, with 68bps for Sept, 131bps to 3.64% for Dec and 145bps to a terminal 3.78% for Mar’23.
  • Speaking to CNBC, he repeated his rate guidance of favoring a front-loading of rate hikes (recently endorsing a 75bp hike in Sept) to hit his long-held stance of 3.75-4% by year-end.
  • He acknowledges that he has deliberately not talked much about rates in 2023 because of heightened uncertainty but he sees a baseline where inflation is more persistent than what the market, leading to risks of higher rates for longer.
  • He doesn’t take too much signal from equities when it comes to forming monetary policy views, noting a few stocks can drive things with a heavy Silicon Valley tech segment.
  • On market pricing, the rise in bond yields reflects ‘better pricing’ of risks whilst there is recession risk but he doesn’t know if will happen and points to relative strength in GDI from this morning’s Q2 data compared to GDP (as noted at the time here): in this particular instance GDI is the better metric of what was going on in 1H22 - it’s a slowing economy but with a really lively job market.

FOMC-dated Fed Funds futures implied rateSource: Bloomberg

To read the full story

Why Subscribe to

MNI is the leading provider

of news and intelligence specifically for the Global Foreign Exchange and Fixed Income Markets, providing timely, relevant, and critical insight for market professionals and those who want to make informed investment decisions. We offer not simply news, but news analysis, linking breaking news to the effects on capital markets. Our exclusive information and intelligence moves markets.

Our credibility

for delivering mission-critical information has been built over three decades. The quality and experience of MNI's team of analysts and reporters across America, Asia and Europe truly sets us apart. Our Markets team includes former fixed-income specialists, currency traders, economists and strategists, who are able to combine expertise on macro economics, financial markets, and political risk to give a comprehensive and holistic insight on global markets.