Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FED
- Latest talk from Bullard (’22 voter) helps push Fed Funds implied rates to post-CPI highs for the Sept FOMC and just offs yesterday’s cycle highs further out, with 68bps for Sept, 131bps to 3.64% for Dec and 145bps to a terminal 3.78% for Mar’23.
- Speaking to CNBC, he repeated his rate guidance of favoring a front-loading of rate hikes (recently endorsing a 75bp hike in Sept) to hit his long-held stance of 3.75-4% by year-end.
- He acknowledges that he has deliberately not talked much about rates in 2023 because of heightened uncertainty but he sees a baseline where inflation is more persistent than what the market, leading to risks of higher rates for longer.
- He doesn’t take too much signal from equities when it comes to forming monetary policy views, noting a few stocks can drive things with a heavy Silicon Valley tech segment.
- On market pricing, the rise in bond yields reflects ‘better pricing’ of risks whilst there is recession risk but he doesn’t know if will happen and points to relative strength in GDI from this morning’s Q2 data compared to GDP (as noted at the time here): in this particular instance GDI is the better metric of what was going on in 1H22 - it’s a slowing economy but with a really lively job market.
FOMC-dated Fed Funds futures implied rateSource: Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok