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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
THAILAND
March Thai trade figures have come in much stronger than expected from a trade surplus standpoint. We printed at +$2.72bn versus -$1.00bn forecast. The range of estimates was -$2.9bn to $169mn. The upside surprise puts the trade surplus back to Q3 2020 levels, see the chart below.
- Export growth proved more resilient than expected, -4.2% against a -14.70% forecast. Exports of agricultural and industrial products improved according to the commerce ministry. Imports printed at -7.1% (-4.35% forecast), so that also helped the direction of the underlying trade position.
- The detail may show one-off items drove the surplus result. Still, the result is likely to be encouraging from the perspective of Thailand's external balance outlook. Tourism inflows are expected to improve further as we progress through 2023.
- In turn this may reinforce THB's outperformance theme, particularly with clouds still over the global outlook.
- USD/THB has moved lower post the release of the trade figures, but remains within recent ranges, last at 34.26/27.
Fig 1: Thailand Trade Surplus Rebounds Strongly
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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