MNI BRIEF: Fed's Goolsbee Sees Jobs Risk From Tight Policy

MNI BRIEF: Investors Saw BOC Cutting to 3% By Q3 2025

MNI: BLS: NET PAYROLLS REVISIONS FOR JUNE, MAY -29,000

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, August 2

MNI China Press Digest Aug 2: Hukou, Property, State Grid

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1376 Fri; -0.90% Y/Y

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 586; OIL RIGS 482; GAS RIGS 98

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: BoE APF Operation on Monday

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Germany, Netherlands, France Due Monday

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

CACIB See High TRY Carry in Lead Up to Elections, Despite Risks to Monetary Policy

TURKEY
  • Speaking on Wednesday night in an interview with state broadcaster TRT, President Erdogan pledged further rate cuts ahead of his re-election bid this May. “There is a direct correlation between interest rates and inflation,” Erdogan said on Wednesday, citing the slowdown in Turkey’s consumer inflation as proof that his theory holds true.
  • The comments come just two weeks after the CBRT held rates at 9.0% for the second consecutive meeting and have ramped up odds of a rate cut at the Feb 23 meeting. In its January policy statement, the CBRT removed the sentence stating that the current policy rate was adequate considering the increasing risks regarding global demand. The MPC also refrained from offering forward guidance.
  • Nevertheless, CACIB say that against the backdrop of decreasing inflation, authorities will continue to control and limit the depreciation of the TRY, which will therefore display a combination of high carry and limited volatility until the election. CACIB add to their TRY overweight at the prevailing USD/TRY level of 18.8130.
  • CACIB estimate that sequential inflation has stood at about 35% over the past few months and due to base effects, headline inflation should converge towards sequential inflation. They see inflation possibly reaching close to 35% in April (release due about ten days before the May election).
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.