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CAD Net Shorts Have Already Seen Some Squeezing Ahead of BoC [2/2]

CANADA
[Follows part i here]
  • With a hike tomorrow not fully priced (holding close to 50/50 odds of 25bp), USDCAD could see movement in either direction.
  • A hawkish surprise could ultimately tee up a run towards a key support for USDCAD at 1.3315 (May 8 low), but with already 40bps of tightening priced for October from current levels it might struggle to build on that.
  • Further, there already appears to have been a sizeable squeezing of CAD shorts in recent weeks (CFTC net shorts jumped from -30.5% to -16.5% last Monday before the further CAD rally). That suggests that some potential of a hawkish surprise is already baked in although there is still scope for further squeezing of shorts ahead vs small net longs earlier in the hiking cycle.

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