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CANADA: CAD Rates Hold Close To Session Lows After Macklem Q&A

CANADA
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  • The BoC press conference has helped keep CAD rates close to hawkish lows seen after the earlier decision, to reverse the early rally ahead of the decision.
  • CORRA futures are up to 5 ticks lower on the day in mid-2026 contracts. It translates to an implied terminal of 2.25% in the H6 (+4.5bps) for exactly at the lowest range of the BoC’s neutral estimates from 2.25-3.25%.
  • As for the near-term, the Apr 16 decision is seen as roughly a 50/50 between another 25bp cut or holding at 2.75% in the mid-point of that range.
  • Can-US 2Y yield differentials meanwhile have now climbed 8bps since the decision statement, back to little changed on the day at -142bps after sliding heavily ahead of the decision. Whilst still historically depressed, it’s off lows of sub -160bps in early February. 
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  • The BoC press conference has helped keep CAD rates close to hawkish lows seen after the earlier decision, to reverse the early rally ahead of the decision.
  • CORRA futures are up to 5 ticks lower on the day in mid-2026 contracts. It translates to an implied terminal of 2.25% in the H6 (+4.5bps) for exactly at the lowest range of the BoC’s neutral estimates from 2.25-3.25%.
  • As for the near-term, the Apr 16 decision is seen as roughly a 50/50 between another 25bp cut or holding at 2.75% in the mid-point of that range.
  • Can-US 2Y yield differentials meanwhile have now climbed 8bps since the decision statement, back to little changed on the day at -142bps after sliding heavily ahead of the decision. Whilst still historically depressed, it’s off lows of sub -160bps in early February. 
image