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CANADA: CAD Top Performer On Geopol Fallout

CANADA
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  • CAD is top performer in G10 FX today owing to the jump in oil prices and broader USD strength after earlier headlines that Iran is planning to launch ballistic missiles on Israel, offsetting the drag that would usually be expected to be seen from the associated slide in equities.
  • CAD outperformance also sees help at the margin from the mfg PMI climbing to its highest since early 2023 (in contrast to the US ISM and PMI mfg prints remaining firmly in contractionary territory) and with input cost inflation at its highest for nearly eighteen months, albeit with more modest increases in output charges.
  • USDCAD sits close to 1.3500 having pulled away from an early high of 1.3540 that nudged resistance at the 20-day EMA of 1.3541. Gains are deemed corrective with support seen at the bear trigger of 1.3420 (Sep 25 low).
  • Tomorrow sees light option expiry, the largest being $427m at 1.3500, leaving little bias for any reaction to tomorrow’s US ADP release amidst a dearth of Canadian releases.
Source: Bloomberg
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  • CAD is top performer in G10 FX today owing to the jump in oil prices and broader USD strength after earlier headlines that Iran is planning to launch ballistic missiles on Israel, offsetting the drag that would usually be expected to be seen from the associated slide in equities.
  • CAD outperformance also sees help at the margin from the mfg PMI climbing to its highest since early 2023 (in contrast to the US ISM and PMI mfg prints remaining firmly in contractionary territory) and with input cost inflation at its highest for nearly eighteen months, albeit with more modest increases in output charges.
  • USDCAD sits close to 1.3500 having pulled away from an early high of 1.3540 that nudged resistance at the 20-day EMA of 1.3541. Gains are deemed corrective with support seen at the bear trigger of 1.3420 (Sep 25 low).
  • Tomorrow sees light option expiry, the largest being $427m at 1.3500, leaving little bias for any reaction to tomorrow’s US ADP release amidst a dearth of Canadian releases.
Source: Bloomberg