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CANADA: CIBC Expect Modest 0.2% M/M Increases For Various Core CPI Measures

CANADA
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  • CIBC forecast headline CPI at 2.5% Y/Y vs an at-the-time consensus of 2.4% although the latter has since lifted to 2.5% as well.
  • “We expect core measures of inflation (trim, median and seasonally adjusted ex food/energy) to show more modest 0.2% gains on the month.” 
  • “Even though July’s interest rate cut came toward the end of the month, and the drop in bond yields was largely an August story, the monthly increase in mortgage interest costs should still continue to ease. Inventory build up and still weak consumer spending should continue to keep goods prices in check.”
  • “Even though our forecast for July CPI is slightly above the early consensus, it would still be consistent with an easing trajectory and a further interest rate cut from the Bank of Canada at its September meeting.”
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  • CIBC forecast headline CPI at 2.5% Y/Y vs an at-the-time consensus of 2.4% although the latter has since lifted to 2.5% as well.
  • “We expect core measures of inflation (trim, median and seasonally adjusted ex food/energy) to show more modest 0.2% gains on the month.” 
  • “Even though July’s interest rate cut came toward the end of the month, and the drop in bond yields was largely an August story, the monthly increase in mortgage interest costs should still continue to ease. Inventory build up and still weak consumer spending should continue to keep goods prices in check.”
  • “Even though our forecast for July CPI is slightly above the early consensus, it would still be consistent with an easing trajectory and a further interest rate cut from the Bank of Canada at its September meeting.”