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CANADA DATA: CPI Dispersion Measures Offer Additional Disinflation Progress

CANADA DATA
  • Along with surprisingly soft core CPI metrics, dispersion measures also moved softer in July. 
  • By our calculations, the share of 185 items across the entire CPI basket growing in excess of 3% Y/Y fell further from 33% to 28%, a new recent low. 
  • The 33% was already back to the 2019 average whilst the 28% equals a long-term average through 2010-19. 
  • Both goods and services saw signs of disinflationary progress in July. 
  • The share of goods growing >3% Y/Y fell from 27.5% to 23% (2019 av 34%, 2010-19 av 26%) whilst the share of services fell from 46% to 41% (2019 and 2010-19 av 31%). 
  • As the below charts show, this services calculation has lagged goods but it has seen what is now starting to be a notable moderation from the 62% share as of December. 

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