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CANADA: USDCAD Tests Support, Lending Survey Ahead Before CAD CPI Tomorrow

CANADA
  • USDCAD has pushed below overnight lows to 1.3652, testing support at 1.3657 (Jul 17 low). 
  • A further push lower could open a key support at 1.3589 (Jun 11 low) in a move that would start a more pronounced trend as opposed to what’s technically seen as a corrective pullback away from resistance at 1.3748 (20-day EMA). 
  • Friday’s CFTC data showed a renewed increase in CAD net shorts for futures at least to -55.6% of open interest, near enough back to historical extremes seen in the aftermath of a dovish BoC in July to accompany a second consecutive cut. 
  • CAD CPI lands tomorrow, where we note TD look for a three-month core rate to nudge above the 3% upper limit, with OIS currently pricing three consecutive cuts to round out the year. 
  • Before then and shortly ahead at 1030ET, the BoC releases its Senior Loan Officer Survey for Q2. One area to watch will be non-price lending conditions for households after a tightening in Q1 for both mortgages and non-mortgages. 

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