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Canadian FI Broadly Tracks Tsys, Senior Loan Officer Survey Tomorrow

CANADA
  • With no local data today, Canadian FI has seen only modest outperformance to US counterparts equivalents, be it short term rates or further out the GoC curve.
  • GoCs echo the bull flattening in Tsys with 2s underperforming on the day (2YY -5bps, 10YY-8.5bps), whilst BAX futures have seen only limited gains in 2023 contracts building to 5-6 tick rallies in 2024.
  • Tomorrow sees the BoC’s Senior Loan Officer Survey for Q1 at 1030ET. Typically conducted near the end of the quarter, it should capture any initial fallout if banks tightening conditions after US regional bank woes.
  • The Q4 survey had shown the first tightening in conditions for businesses and household non-mortgage lending since 2020, albeit very small by historical tightening episodes, whilst household mortgage conditions still eased on net despite the sizeable increase in rates [see charts].

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