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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
SPAIN
Ahead of the 12 May Catalan election, the outcome remains too close to call. Catalonia has an outsized influence on Spanish politics, with PM Pedro Sanchez reliant on the support of pro-independence parties at the national level to prop up his minority gov't. As such, this election could have a significant impact on the stability of Spanish politics nationwide.
- The centre-left pro-union Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC) lead polls, with the hardline pro-indpendence Junts per Catalunya (Junts) in second. The leftist moderate pro-independence Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC), which has previously worked with both parties, could end up kingmaker. Polls show a high proportion of voters (~40% in some surveys) as undecided, making an unexpected outcome possible.
- Averages of opinion polls in May so far shows the pro-union parties - PSC, conservative Popular Party (PP), right-wing Vox, and leftist Comuns Sumar - on 68.6 seats. Meanwhile, the pro-independece parties - Junts, ERC, far-left Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP) and nationalist Catalan Alliance (AC) - average 68.1 seats. With 68 required for a majority, the election is too close to call in this respect.
- The PSC is running on a campaign supporting an amnesty for those involved in the illegal 2017 independence referendum, and advocating 'moderation rather than separatism'. Junts leader, the currently-exiled Carles Puigdemont, argues that if he becomes regional president he will be in a strong position to extract concessions from Madrid due to Sanchez's reliance on seven Junts deputies to prop up his minority gov't.
Chart 1. Catalonia Opinion Polling, Seat Projections and 5-Poll Moving Average
Source: feedback, GESPO, Sigma Dos, Sociometrica, GAD3, Electopanel, Key Data, Cluster17, YouGov, GAPS, NC Report, DYM, IMOP, 40dB, Target Point, Celeste-Tel, Hamalgama Metrica, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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