Catalan Election Outcome Could Disrupt Wider Spanish Political Stability

Ahead of the 12 May Catalan election, the outcome remains too close to call. Catalonia has an outsized influence on Spanish politics, with PM Pedro Sanchez reliant on the support of pro-independence parties at the national level to prop up his minority gov't. As such, this election could have a significant impact on the stability of Spanish politics nationwide.

• The centre-left pro-union Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC) lead polls, with the hardline pro-indpendence Junts per Catalunya (Junts) in second. The leftist moderate pro-independence Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC), which has previously worked with both parties, could end up kingmaker. Polls show a high proportion of voters (~40% in some surveys) as undecided, making an unexpected outcome possible.
• Averages of opinion polls in May so far shows the pro-union parties - PSC, conservative Popular Party (PP), right-wing Vox, and leftist Comuns Sumar - on 68.6 seats. Meanwhile, the pro-independece parties - Junts, ERC, far-left Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP) and nationalist Catalan Alliance (AC) - average 68.1 seats. With 68 required for a majority, the election is too close to call in this respect.
• The PSC is running on a campaign supporting an amnesty for those involved in the illegal 2017 independence referendum, and advocating 'moderation rather than separatism'. Junts leader, the currently-exiled Carles Puigdemont, argues that if he becomes regional president he will be in a strong position to extract concessions from Madrid due to Sanchez's reliance on seven Junts deputies to prop up his minority gov't.

Source: feedback, GESPO, Sigma Dos, Sociometrica, GAD3, Electopanel, Key Data, Cluster17, YouGov, GAPS, NC Report, DYM, IMOP, 40dB, Target Point, Celeste-Tel, Hamalgama Metrica, MNI