Cautiously Higher As Big Week Gets Underway

Core FI is trading slightly stronger though largely within Friday's ranges early Monday, reflecting caution ahead of a week dominated with event risk.

• Gilts are outperforming amid UK curve bull flattening; the German curve has twist flattened slightly.
• The US curve is 4-5bp richer beyond 2Y which has seen just a 2bp drop in yields. 3Y and 10Y supply are the highlights of today's US schedule.
• Periphery EGB spreads are marginally tighter, as are German swap spreads - following on from Friday's above-expected TLTRO repayments.
• Multiple central bank decisions this week (with 50bp the most likely scenario for the big 3): MNI's Fed preview here; ECB preview here.
• UK Oct GDP out earlier was the session's data highlight - while coming in above expectations, it probably won't impact Thursday's BoE decision much.
• No US data of note ahead of Tuesday's Nov CPI report.

Latest levels:

• Mar TY future up 6/32 at 114-09, range of 113-29 to 114-10
• Mar Bund futures (RX) up 13 ticks at 140.65 (L: 140.26 / H: 140.74)
• Mar Gilt futures (G) up 34 ticks at 105.77 (L: 105.31 / H: 105.88)
• Italy / German 10-Yr spread 1.4bps tighter at 189.2bps