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CBR Reaffirms Growth Focus With Above Consensus Rate Cut

RUSSIA
  • Interesting move from the CBR to go above expectations with a 300bp cut to 14%
  • The statement printed mostly as expected with a more moderate inflation outlook and a shift in the balance of risks toward growth – which is headed for an 8-10% FY22 contraction.
  • The path of inflation will be linked closely to RUB performance going forward, which has been a key driver of this decision alongside a faster than expected dissipation of supply-side inflation drivers and a real decline in consumer demand.
  • Higher export demand vs imports will continue to support a robust current account surplus and in turn the RUB – softening passthrough pressure to inflation.
  • CPI will be sticky in the 18-23% range, but the CBR views the current measures as most temporary in nature and holds open the prospect of future cuts to soften the blow of a potential recession.
  • The focus shifts now to Nabiullina for remarks and her assessment of the medium-term outlook.
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
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MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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