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Free AccessCBR Statement Analysis: Mostly Hawkish With Little Sign of Easing Up
- Today's statement sounded incrementally more hawkish than the prior meeting with a few new inclusions:
- Intensified pressure from the labour market highlighted, while phrasing on 'significantly proinflationary' risks and elevated expectations remained the same.
- Disinflationary risks also noted as moderate.
- Focus on a lower than expected household Marginal propensity to save is also more pronounced in this statement.
- CPI in July also seen flat at 6.5% as of 19 July, but may have room to rise higher.
- 2021 CPI was adjusted sharply higher to 5.5-6.2% from 4.7-5.2%, while growth has been revised higher to 4-4.5% vs 3-4% prior.
- Additionally, a large revision to current account surplus to $88bn vs $55bn prior
- This decision comes in line with the BBG consensus and that latter part of our base case scenario, with the CBR falling short of noting any easing in demand pressures in CPI or favourable base effects filtering through in the coming months
- Markets will turn their focus to Nabiullina's presser at 1300BST for further guidance and tone RE the bank's next steps.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.