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CBRT Seen Holding Rates Steady

TURKEY
  • The CBRT is expected to leave its 1W repo rate steady at 14% today (decision at 2pm local time / 1200BST / 0700ET) despite de-anchoring inflation expectations and renewed TRY weakness.
  • The Ukraine war shock combined with the renewed TRY weakness could delay the ‘disinflation process’ that the CBRT has been referring to in its latest meetings. Recent CBRT survey revealed that the year-end forecast increased to 58% YoY (up from 46% previously), with some sell side analysts forecasting that inflation could surge up to 70%. Full preview here: https://marketnews.com/mni-crbt-preview-may-2022-c...
  • Later today, President Erdogan is to chair a National Security Meeting from 3pm local time (1300BST/0800ET) at which the President is likely to discuss Ankara’s demands for Sweden and Finland to take steps to address security concerns before any admission to NATO. Turkey are demanding that the countries lift arms sales restrictions to Turkey – on which discussions are deemed “positive” but more work is required.
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