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CEE FX: CE3 Currencies Pare Earlier Gains, Moves Lacking Follow-Through

CEE FX
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Moderate USD buying late into the European session has put EURUSD back below 1.09, in-turn leading a recovery in each of EURPLN, EURHUF and EURCZK. The former remains 0.15% in the red, while the latter two are approaching positive territory at typing. Zloty strength earlier in the session was tied to the narrowing of implied odds of a Harris vs. Trump win, though moves across CE3 have generally lacked any real conviction today with sole focus on the vote later in the week. Full EURHUF and EURPLN technical updates below:

  • A bull cycle in EURHUF remains intact and last week’s gains reinforce current conditions. 408.77, the 61.8% retracement of the Oct 2022 - Jun 2023 bear leg, has been cleared, opening 415.92, the Dec 13 2022 high, ahead of 418.50, the 76.4% retracement point. Initial firm support lies at 403.08, the 20-day EMA.
  • Despite the pullback in EURPLN today, an uptrend remains intact for now. The cross has recently traded through a key resistance at 4.3309, the Aug 9 high, and breached 4.3506, the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 14 - Jul 15 bear leg. The clear breach of these price points opens 4.3826, the Jun 14 high. Initial firm support is at 4.3282, the 20-day EMA. 
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Moderate USD buying late into the European session has put EURUSD back below 1.09, in-turn leading a recovery in each of EURPLN, EURHUF and EURCZK. The former remains 0.15% in the red, while the latter two are approaching positive territory at typing. Zloty strength earlier in the session was tied to the narrowing of implied odds of a Harris vs. Trump win, though moves across CE3 have generally lacked any real conviction today with sole focus on the vote later in the week. Full EURHUF and EURPLN technical updates below:

  • A bull cycle in EURHUF remains intact and last week’s gains reinforce current conditions. 408.77, the 61.8% retracement of the Oct 2022 - Jun 2023 bear leg, has been cleared, opening 415.92, the Dec 13 2022 high, ahead of 418.50, the 76.4% retracement point. Initial firm support lies at 403.08, the 20-day EMA.
  • Despite the pullback in EURPLN today, an uptrend remains intact for now. The cross has recently traded through a key resistance at 4.3309, the Aug 9 high, and breached 4.3506, the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 14 - Jul 15 bear leg. The clear breach of these price points opens 4.3826, the Jun 14 high. Initial firm support is at 4.3282, the 20-day EMA.