Center Right Fratelli d'Italia Set To Form Coalition Government

Yesterday's Italian general election delivered a decisive victory for the center-right coalition of Fratelli d'Italia, Forza Italia and Lega.

• FdI slightly outperformed expectation at the expense of other right right-wing parties Forza Italia and Lega, giving FdI leader Giorgia Meloni a strong mandate to build a government.
• The first round shows the coalition led by FdI securing the second largest parliamentary majority since 1945. Likely 235/400 MPs in the lower chamber and 115/200 senators in the upper chamber.
• Strong performance of the coalition to deliver a rare period of parliamentary stability reflected in a robust response on Italian markets.
• It should be noted that although the center-right has gained a majority in both houses of parliament they fell short of the two-thirds majority required to alter the constitution without a referendum.
• Meloni is expected to announce her cabinet by the end of October, with a government expected by early November, at which point market focus will turn to the budget for 2023.
• The relatively weak performance of PD is likely to trigger a period of rebuilding amongst opposition.
• Results: Fratelli d'Italia (FdI): 26.3%, Democratic Party (PD): 19.3%, Lega: 8.9%, 5Star: 15%, Forza Italia (FI): 8.0%, Azione (Az) Italia Viva: 7.8%, Sinistra: 3.7%, Italexit: 1.9%