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Central Bank Minutes Scheduled Later Today – 2300BST/1800ET

COLOMBIA
  • **Goldman Sachs: In the post-meeting statement, the MPC reaffirmed its commitment to a "gradual but firm" process of monetary policy adjustment to ensure the return of inflation to the 3% target.
    • In this context, GS expect the minutes to show a more hawkish tone and anticipate a discussion on recent inflation dynamics and the overall balance of risks, including the robust household demand growth.
    • They also expect the minutes to review the debate among board members around the dissenting views on the pace of monetary tightening and the set of conditions that led most MPC members to prefer the more moderate path of normalization amid a notably complex inflation backdrop.
  • As a reminder, BanRep hiked the overnight lending rate by 100bps to 6.00% on Friday. The rate decision was split with 3 dissenting board members favouring a bolder 150bp increase.
    • In the post meeting press conference, Governor Villar said that inflation is mostly driven by external factors and Colombia’s convergence of CPI to target may take 2 years. Finance minister Restrepo added that the output gap in Colombia is almost closed.
  • For reference, the next BanRep meeting/decision is not due until June 30.
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