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Central Government Fiscal Data Due

BRAZIL
  • Central government budget balance data for December will be published at 13.30GMT(0830ET), followed by weekly trade balance data at 1800GMT. Domestically, the focus later this week will be the BCB’s COPOM meeting on Wednesday, when another 50bp SELIC rate cut is widely expected. Attention will thus remain on the forward guidance and any indication of a change in the pace of easing in the coming meetings. Also on Wednesday, the market will be watching for any shift in the Fed’s forward guidance to more neutral language at its FOMC meeting.
    • Dec. Central Govt Budget Balance, est. -117b, prior -39.4b
    • Jan. Trade Balance Weekly, prior $1.01b
  • The lower house of Congress will return from recess this week, with Folha noting the threat of it blocking Lula’s agenda. Haddad will meet with Social Security Minister Lupi at 1900GMT today. Separately, discussion with Congress over the payroll tax reforms are likely to continue this week.
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