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Centre-Left Berlin Loss Reflects Current Federal Coalition Support Loss
The loss of the centre-right SPD of Chancellor Scholz in Berlin reflects the trend at the federal level as well. The SPD has been losing support in opinion polls since the 2021 election and the latest polls show it down around 6pp from the 2021 result, whereas the opposition centre-right CDU/CSU is up around 2.5pp. The other governing parties are mixed with support for the Greens rising around 3pp but support for the pro-business liberals down 4.5pp. If the CDU/CSU maintains its lead over the incumbent SPD of around 27% compared to 20%, coalition formation after the next election due in 2025 could by difficult. The current governing coalition would not have enough support to form another government.
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