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Centre-Right Moderates Score Worst Polling Since 2017 Days From Election

SWEDEN

In the latest Novus opinion poll the main opposition centre-right Moderates garnered its lowest level of support in over five years just over a week from the Swedish general election (11 Sep). Ulf Kristersson's party received the backing of 15.6% of respondents, the lowest since an August 2017 poll from Sentio.

  • Novus poll: Social Democrats: 29.8% (-0.4), Sweden Democrats: 20.9% (-0.2), Moderates: 15.6% (-0.6), Centre Party: 7.7% (+0.3), Left Party: 7.5% (-1.1), Christian Democrats: 6.4% (+0.5), Greens: 5.6% (+0.8), Liberals: 5.2% (+0.7). +/- vs. 26-28 August 2022. Fieldwork: 27-29 August 2022. Sample size: 1,500
  • In the run-up to the election the right-wing nationalist Sweden Democrats are establishing themselves in a fairly consistent second place in opinion polls, behind only PM Magdalena Andersson's centre-left Social Democrats.
  • Overall polling puts the right-wing and left-wing blocs of parties almost neck-and-neck, with the election still too close to call. Should the right hold a majority after the election, any formal role for the Sweden Democrats would send a shockwave through the country's political landscape, given historically other parties of the right refused to work with the nationalists.
Chart 1. Swedish General Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average

Source: SKOP, Novus, Sentio, Sifo, Demoskop, Ipsos, SCB, MNI

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