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Cheaper, Drifted Weaker As US Tsys Extend Post-Payrolls Sell-Off

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM -8.0 & XM -9.0) are holding cheaper after Friday's negative post-Payrolls lead-in from US tsys. Trading ranges have been relatively narrow, with news flow light. There hasn’t been much in the way of domestic drivers to flag, outside of the previously outlined Home Loan Values data.

  • Cash US tsys have extended Friday’s post-payrolls cheapening in today’s Asia-Pac session, with benchmark yields 1-3bps higher.
  • Looking ahead, the market’s focus is likely on US CPI and March FOMC minutes on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday.
  • Cash ACGBs are 7-9bps cheaper, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential 3bps lower at -23bps.
  • Swap rates are 7-8bps higher, with the 3s10s curve steeper.
  • The bills strip has bear-steepened, with pricing -1 to -9.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-6bps firmer across meetings, with Mar-25 leading. A cumulative 30bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar sees Westpac Consumer and NAB Business Confidence, ahead of CBA Household Spending and Consumer Inflation Expectations on Thursday.
  • On Wednesday, the RBNZ delivers its Policy Decision, with consensus unanimous in expecting the OCR to be left unchanged at 5.50%.
  • Also on Wednesday, the AOFM plans to sell A$800mn of the 4.75% April 2027 bond.
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ACGBs (YM -8.0 & XM -9.0) are holding cheaper after Friday's negative post-Payrolls lead-in from US tsys. Trading ranges have been relatively narrow, with news flow light. There hasn’t been much in the way of domestic drivers to flag, outside of the previously outlined Home Loan Values data.

  • Cash US tsys have extended Friday’s post-payrolls cheapening in today’s Asia-Pac session, with benchmark yields 1-3bps higher.
  • Looking ahead, the market’s focus is likely on US CPI and March FOMC minutes on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday.
  • Cash ACGBs are 7-9bps cheaper, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential 3bps lower at -23bps.
  • Swap rates are 7-8bps higher, with the 3s10s curve steeper.
  • The bills strip has bear-steepened, with pricing -1 to -9.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-6bps firmer across meetings, with Mar-25 leading. A cumulative 30bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar sees Westpac Consumer and NAB Business Confidence, ahead of CBA Household Spending and Consumer Inflation Expectations on Thursday.
  • On Wednesday, the RBNZ delivers its Policy Decision, with consensus unanimous in expecting the OCR to be left unchanged at 5.50%.
  • Also on Wednesday, the AOFM plans to sell A$800mn of the 4.75% April 2027 bond.