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Cheaper On Monday, 2s10s Inversion Deepest Since 1981

US TSYS

TYM3 deals at 111-03+, +0-04, in line with levels seen late in the NY session.

  • Cash Tsys finished 1-3bps cheaper yesterday. 2s10s Inversion printed at the deepest level seen since late 1981 before moderating.
  • Cross-market pressure from EGBs, as ECB's Holzmann called for 4 consecutive 50bp hikes, saw Tsys retreat from pre-NY session highs.
  • A fresh bid then kicked in in early NY dealing, as participants adjusted to weekend news flow (centered on the Chinese GDP growth target).
  • U.S. data was mixed, U.S. factory orders printed marginally firmer than expectations whilst final Durable Good Orders were in line with estimates.
  • Tsys continued to weaken through the NY session despite the absence of a headline driver, before marginally paring losses into the close.
  • Momentum in the $IG issuance slate seemed a likely driver for the weakness the NY session wore on, with continued spill over pressure from the German FI space noted post-Holzmann.
  • The RBA's Monetary Policy decision headlines in Asia-Pac hours. Further out we have Wholesale Inventories and Consumer Credit, but it will be Fed Chair Powell's semi-annual Monetary Policy report to the Senate Banking Committee that provides the highlight.

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