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AUSSIE BONDS: Cheaper To Start The Week, CPI Monthly On Wednesday

AUSSIE BONDS
BulletAPACFixed Income BulletsAustraliaMarkets

ACGBs (YM -4.0 & XM -4.0) are cheaper after US tsys finished last week weaker following the December manufacturing ISM survey, which beat expectations. The headline reading of 49.3 improved from 48.4 prior and a 9-month high, besting the survey expectation of 48.4.

  • This week, US economic data and Treasury supply are being brought forward to accommodate Thursday's "day of mourning" to honour President Carter.
  • Cash ACGBs are 4-9bps cheaper, with the 5-year underperforming. The AU-US 10-year yield differential is at -18bps.
  • Australia's S&P Global Dec. PMIs showed: Services PMI 50.8 vs 50.5 in Nov. and Composite Unchanged at 50.2.
  • Swap rates are 3bps higher.
  • The bills strip is showing -2 to -3 across contracts.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 3bps firmer across meetings. A 25bp rate cut is more than fully priced by April (118%), with a February cut at a 58% chance.
  • The local calendar heats up this week with the release of November CPI data on Wednesday. The calendar also sees Building Approvals and Private Sector Finance tomorrow and Retail Sales and Trade Balance on Thursday.
  • AOFM Bond issuance is expected to resume in the week beginning 13 January 2025.
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ACGBs (YM -4.0 & XM -4.0) are cheaper after US tsys finished last week weaker following the December manufacturing ISM survey, which beat expectations. The headline reading of 49.3 improved from 48.4 prior and a 9-month high, besting the survey expectation of 48.4.

  • This week, US economic data and Treasury supply are being brought forward to accommodate Thursday's "day of mourning" to honour President Carter.
  • Cash ACGBs are 4-9bps cheaper, with the 5-year underperforming. The AU-US 10-year yield differential is at -18bps.
  • Australia's S&P Global Dec. PMIs showed: Services PMI 50.8 vs 50.5 in Nov. and Composite Unchanged at 50.2.
  • Swap rates are 3bps higher.
  • The bills strip is showing -2 to -3 across contracts.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 3bps firmer across meetings. A 25bp rate cut is more than fully priced by April (118%), with a February cut at a 58% chance.
  • The local calendar heats up this week with the release of November CPI data on Wednesday. The calendar also sees Building Approvals and Private Sector Finance tomorrow and Retail Sales and Trade Balance on Thursday.
  • AOFM Bond issuance is expected to resume in the week beginning 13 January 2025.