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CHF: EURCHF Prints Lowest Since 2015 Floor Removal, Schlegel Speaks

CHF
CEEMEASwitzerlandBulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets
  • EURCHF posted its lowest daily close since January on Thursday, and following the significant post-PMI declines for the single currency, EURCHF traded at its lowest level since the floor removal in 2015.
  • The 0.9206 print was just below the 0.9211 low on Aug 05, both traded in an illiquid manner albeit in very different circumstances. The 60-pip bounce might be encouraging for technical analysts seeing nascent signs of a double bottom on the daily chart, something that could gain credence should the SNB decide to step in at these levels.
  • With some analysts viewing the CHF as too strong versus both rate differentials and more fundamental metrics of fair value, the potential for some degree of intervention remains high. SNB foreign currency holdings data for November will be published on December 6, ahead of the SNB policy meeting on December 12.
  • Signs of any updated rhetoric on FX will be carefully monitored during SNB Chairman Schlegel’s speech today at 1240GMT/1340CET, titled "Managing Inflation in a Small Open Economy with a Safe Currency".
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  • EURCHF posted its lowest daily close since January on Thursday, and following the significant post-PMI declines for the single currency, EURCHF traded at its lowest level since the floor removal in 2015.
  • The 0.9206 print was just below the 0.9211 low on Aug 05, both traded in an illiquid manner albeit in very different circumstances. The 60-pip bounce might be encouraging for technical analysts seeing nascent signs of a double bottom on the daily chart, something that could gain credence should the SNB decide to step in at these levels.
  • With some analysts viewing the CHF as too strong versus both rate differentials and more fundamental metrics of fair value, the potential for some degree of intervention remains high. SNB foreign currency holdings data for November will be published on December 6, ahead of the SNB policy meeting on December 12.
  • Signs of any updated rhetoric on FX will be carefully monitored during SNB Chairman Schlegel’s speech today at 1240GMT/1340CET, titled "Managing Inflation in a Small Open Economy with a Safe Currency".