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Chicago Business Barometer™ - Reverses to 46.9 in December

The Chicago Business Barometer™, produced with MNI reversed -8.9 points to 46.9 from 55.8 in November. This unwinds most of the increase seen in last month’s reading, returning the Chicago Business Barometer™ back into contractionary territory, but still almost 3 points above the September and October readings.


PRICES PAID RISES NOTABLY; PRODUCTION REMAINS IN EXPANSION

Prices paid was the only business activity sub-index to rise in December, jumping +10.1 points to 70.0, the highest level since August 2023.

Production dipped -3.6 points to 58.8 points, remaining in expansion, and the second highest reading of 2023. This was driven by the second highest proportion of respondents reporting unchanged production since the 1970s with a larger fall in those reporting higher production than lower.

ORDER BACKLOGS, NEW ORDERS AND INVENTORIES SEE DOUBLE-DIGIT DECLINES

Order Backlogs declined -13.4 points to the lowest since August 2023 and the third lowest since H2-2020.

New Orders slipped -10.2 points, but remained above the 2023 average. The decline was due to less respondents seeing more New Orders, whilst same and fewer levels of New Orders reported rose.

Inventories slumped -14.7 points to the lowest level since July 2023, while Supplier Deliveries slowed -5.0 points.

Employment dropped -8.8 points to 45.1, returning to contraction after 2 months of expansion and with the lowest proportion of respondents noting higher employment levels since H2-2020.

The survey ran from December 1 to December 18.

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