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Chicago Survey Finds Higher Interest Rates Squeezing Investment Plans into Q1

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Chicago Business BarometerTM asked firms in January "As interest rates potentially approach their peak, are your investment plans changing?"

  • 30.6% expect to keep investment plans the same and 27.8% plan less investment in light of high interest rates. Only 2.8% expect higher investment levels.
  • The bulk (38.9%) of respondents remained at present unsure as to changes to their investment plans as uncertainty surrounding the year ahead's economic outlooks prevails.
  • US advance Q4 GDP data signalled that the drag from private investment intensified from - 0.6pps to -1.2pps, its largest since the pandemic. The investment hit came as non-residential investment broadly paused after a strong Q3.
  • The tepid non-residential investment outturn is all the more notable by the sharp slowdown in core durable goods orders, from 7.5% in Q3 to 0.1% annualized in Q4, suggesting little prospects of an uplift in the immediate months ahead.

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Chicago Business BarometerTM asked firms in January "As interest rates potentially approach their peak, are your investment plans changing?"

  • 30.6% expect to keep investment plans the same and 27.8% plan less investment in light of high interest rates. Only 2.8% expect higher investment levels.
  • The bulk (38.9%) of respondents remained at present unsure as to changes to their investment plans as uncertainty surrounding the year ahead's economic outlooks prevails.
  • US advance Q4 GDP data signalled that the drag from private investment intensified from - 0.6pps to -1.2pps, its largest since the pandemic. The investment hit came as non-residential investment broadly paused after a strong Q3.
  • The tepid non-residential investment outturn is all the more notable by the sharp slowdown in core durable goods orders, from 7.5% in Q3 to 0.1% annualized in Q4, suggesting little prospects of an uplift in the immediate months ahead.