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CIBC: BoC To Flag Lack Of Downside Momentum In Core Inflation

CANADA
  • CIBC expect the BoC to keep the overnight rate on hold at 5%.
  • “The statement will cite the ample evidence that economic growth has been curtailed by the rate hikes delivered thus far.”
  • “We don’t share the Bank’s worry that inflation will prove sticky in the face of an evident economic slowdown, as it’s too soon in the move from a tight economy to one with slack to have expected to see a drop in price pressures tied to domestic demand.”
  • “But we sense that those worries, and references in the statement to the lack of downside momentum in key core inflation metrics, will see the Bank maintain a somewhat hawkish tone, with the statement’s conclusion leaving the door open to further hikes if we don’t see progress towards the 2% target in the months ahead.”
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