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CIBC Looking For Lacklustre Retail Sales In July Advance

CANADA
  • CIBC are in line with consensus for tomorrow's retail sales release, estimating likely flat nominal growth in June per the advance estimate, and implying a retreat in volume terms that extends the recent sluggishness seen in goods consumption.
  • A decline in unit auto sales likely held back the headline (ex. auto sales seen at 0.3% M/M pace) although that would still translate into a negative in volume terms.
  • The advance estimate for July will likely indicate continued lacklustre sales in real terms, in line with the deterioration in the labour market, and as households adjust to higher interest rates.

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