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CIBC On CN Futures Roll

CANADA
  • Written yesterday, CIBC note the “rapidly approaching” first notice for CNZ3 on Nov 29 before first delivery on Dec 1 and final tradable data on Dec 18.
  • They “suspect there is still some way to go for the H4s to become fully liquid, especially given the US Thanksgiving Holiday”.
  • “As at yesterday’s close, the Z3H4 roll traded at -61 cents, relative to its fair value of -55 cents, with the Z3s coming in roughly four cents cheap into first notice while the H4s are a penny or so rich.”
  • “Data from CIBC RAM suggests that there is a larger presence of long basis positions open as we move into first notice, which suggests that the footprint on cash markets will be larger.”
  • “We like CTD/10yr flattening ahead, even in the days immediately after the first notice period on November 29th. Specifically, our preferred trades include flattening Dec31s/Dec33s as long basis positions in Z3 unwind, or flattening Dec31s/Jun32s on the H4 CTD switch into the coming week or so. Exogenous catalysts, such as the December 1st Index Extension, will provide additional tailwinds to the trade.”

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