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CIBC Previewing Q1 GDP

CANADA
  • CIBC forecast Q1 GDP growth of 2.6% annualized, after a solid quarter albeit one that ended on a weaker footing.
  • They see it driven largely by net trade as export volumes surged but imports floundered. However, weak imports likely mean a slower pace of inventory building as well, which will be a drag on overall GDP.
  • Despite softer imports, they see final domestic demand, and in particular consumer spending, looking much more solid in Q1 than it was in 2H22. However, the strength in consumer spending during Q1 will be partly misleading, as a large chunk will represent the delivery of auto orders that were placed in 2022.
  • Monthly data suggest that momentum faded noticeably as the quarter wore on, with a -0.1% M/M decline anticipated for March. With power outages in Quebec and a strike by Federal workers both disrupting the economy during April, the advance estimate for that month could point to another slight decline in GDP to start Q2.
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