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CIBC See Headline CPI Stuck Just Above 3% Until Spring, But Core To Decelerate

CANADA
  • CIBC see headline CPI at 3.4% Y/Y in December, at the time above market consensus but now in line, after 3.1% Y/Y in Nov. It’s “largely because gasoline prices fell less than they did during the same month of 2022.”
  • “Elsewhere, rents and mortgage interest costs will keep shelter prices rising quickly, although there should be further signs that food price inflation is easing.”
  • Importantly though, “with overall inflationary pressures becoming less broad-based, we should see a further deceleration in the BoC’s preferred CPI-trim and CPI-median measures of inflation.
  • Looking ahead, they see headline likely “stuck just above 3% until the spring, largely due to continued increases in shelter costs (including mortgage interest payments) and some lingering food price inflation.”
  • “However, with the drivers of inflation becoming narrower, the CPI-trim and CPI-median measures of price pressures should continue to decelerate, which will provide comfort for the BoC to start cutting interest rates in Q2.”
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