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Citi Favours NOK over SEK in Near-Term

SCANDIS
  • Citi write that they like to own NOK upside, as they expect the Norges Bank’s job to end only in H2. They also expect FX purchases to decrease, although there are near term risks to the view.
  • They add that above average hawkish data and inflation prints favour NOK over SEK, particularly in the context of a dovish Riksbank. They therefore like to own the downside on SEK against NOK, EUR and USD via EURSEK call spreads.
  • On Norwegian FX purchases, they still expect FX purchases to come down, but acknowledge there are clear risks near term (particularly given that, as shown in the aftermath of the last announcement, even a small reduction will likely disappoint markets and can spark NOK sell off).
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