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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessCiti on Turkey's Post-Election Market Outlook
- Citi Research identified a correlation with TRY performance and Turkey’s CDS spreads - focusing on former CBRT Governor Agbal’s tenure from November 2020 to March 2021. They find the level of 5-year CDS spreads declined by ~250bps in response to policy normalisation actions.
- They estimate that a similar 250bps drop could lead to an appreciation of TRY by about 12% over one year, if similar macroeconomic policies are implemented.
- Regarding FX, a removal and/or transition of current regulatory measures could see USDTRY trade higher in the short-term towards the 25.00 range. In the medium-term, consensus projects USDTRY around 21.00 in Q3 and 21.63 in Q4.
- Citi Equity Research highlight that policy normalisation in 2020-2021 led to a material rally in Turkish equity markets, with BIST100 index rallying as much as +37%.
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.