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CitiBanamex Economist Survey Pushes Back First Rate Cut Forecast

MEXICO
  • Citibanamex released the latest survey of economists late Tuesday, where the year-end 2023 estimate for GDP has been increased to 3.10% from 2.90%. They also updated their view on the next rate cut which is now February 2024 whilst previously they expected it in December 2023. Inflation estimates remain very close to prior estimates:
    • Next rate move to be a 25 bps cut in February 2024
    • 2023 year-end inflation raised to 4.70% from 4.67%
    • 2024 year-end inflation held at 4.00%
    • 2023 GDP raised to 3.10% from 2.90%, 2024 GDP raised to 1.70% from 1.60%
    • 2023 year-end exchange rate lowered to 17.70 from 17.85 MXN/USD

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