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Cleveland Fed Alternate CPI Messages Give Mixed Messages

US DATA
  • Released yesterday after a delay following Tuesday’s CPI report, the Cleveland Fed alternate CPI measures supported the extent of the downside surprise in core CPI at 0.20% M/M to differing extents.
  • The 16% trimmed mean measure was broadly representative of core CPI, slowing from 0.37% to 0.25% M/M and its slowest since Feb’21.
  • However, potentially indicative of broader based pressures across the entire basket, the median only nudged from 0.53 to 0.46% M/M. It remains more than twice the monthly pace consistent with the 2% inflation target but is at least the softest since Dec’21.

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