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Cleveland Fed Metrics Give Mixed Messages On Broadening Inflation

DATA REACT

The Cleveland Fed's median CPI indicator ticked up to 2.21% Y/Y in June, highest since Nov-20 but not close to the recent peak in Oct 2019 of 3.00% - and slowed M/M to 0.2% from 0.3% in May.

  • But the 16% trimmed mean CPI (which "is a weighted average of one-month inflation rates of components whose expenditure weights fall below the 92nd percentile and above the 8th percentile of price changes"), in other words the bulk of the distribution - hit a 13-year high of 2.90% Y/Y (0.5% M/M).
  • While of course both are well below the actual June CPI prints - as would be expected given the nature of the Cleveland Fed calculations - the distribution of price gains with a tame median but a soaring mean paints a mixed picture of broadening price pressures.


Source: Cleveland Fed, MNI. PCE data is to May

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