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CNH Consolidates Early Losses, CHF Outperforms

  • CNH extended losses early on Monday against the USD, with China's more conservative growth targets continuing to work against the currency to start the week. USDCNH has topped resistance at the 61.8% retracement for last week's leg lower, crossing at 6.9415. With prices consolidating throughout the US session, attention will turn to the more medium-term level at the 6.9815 100-dma - a tech point that successfully contained prices at the end of February.
  • EURUSD continued to creep higher during Monday trade, with the pair printing a new high at 1.0694, a few pips above resistance at 1.0691 - last week's best levels. The initial catalyst for the Euro outperformance was the somewhat hawkish tone from ECB's Holzmann (Sees 4 further 50bps rate hikes this year), with the bounce off the lows for the US 10y yield failing to slow the day's uptrend in the pair.
  • Despite the single currency’s outperformance on Monday, EURCHF sits slightly lower on the session following the above-estimate Swiss inflation data released earlier today. In similar vein, the Swiss Franc is the best performing G10 ccy against the greenback, rising 0.42% approaching the APAC crossover. The data has prompted notable sell-side outfits to adjust their March SNB calls, further underpinning the Franc strength on Monday.
  • A late turn lower for equities cemented the Australian dollar as one of the worst performers. The weakness comes ahead of the overnight RBA decision, where the central bank are widely expected to hike rates 25bp to 3.6%.
  • China trade data will also cross overnight before the focus then turns to Fed Chair Powell, due to testify on the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report.

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