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CNH Supported By Intervention Headlines, PHP Losses Ground

ASIA FX

USD/Asia pairs have been mixed today, despite the softer USD tone against the majors. USD/CNH saw some downside traction, with reports of state banks selling USDs onshore helping, but there hasn't been much follow through. Weaker onshore equities aren't helping. USD/PHP has continued to recover. Tomorrow the focus will largely rest on the BOK and BI decisions, with both central banks likely to hold rates steady.

  • Bloomberg headlines crossed that state owned banks were seen buying CNY/USD around the 7.2900 level. Earlier highs in USD/CNY came in just above 7.2930, while we now sit at 7.2810, lows for the session coming in at 7.2757. Outside of a sharp move lower in the pair, there hasn't been much follow through. USD/CNH sits at 7.2915/20 currently, also above earlier lows of 7.2830, which likely coincided with onshore USD/CNY spot moving lower. Weakness in onshore equities has provided an offset, with the CSI 300 down nearly 0.75% at this stage.
  • USD/HKD spot has consolidated somewhat, with spot finding some resistance to a break above 7.8400 in the near term. The pair was last around 7.8370. Recent highs rest around the 7.8395 level. US-HK yield differentials still remain skewed in favor of the USD, although market participants may not see the same risk/reward given spot USD/HKD is getting closer to the top end of the peg band.
  • The Rupee has firmed off multi-month lows in recent dealing, USD/INR had printed its highest level since mid-October before marginally paring gains. RBI Governor Das is slated to give a speech in Mumbai on Wednesday. Looking ahead the data calendar is empty until 31 Aug when Q2 GDP crosses.
  • USD/MYR prints at 4.6515/40, the pair is a touch lower on Wednesday. The pair sits a touch off its highest level since mid-July as August's gains are consolidated in a narrow range above the 4.65 handle. We sit ~3.2% above the opening levels from Aug 1. The latest Foreign Reserves data from Aug 15 showed a downtick to $112.2bn from $112.9bn. July CPI crosses on Friday, a downtick in inflation to 2.1% Y/Y from 2.4% is expected.
  • The SGD NEER (per Goldman Sachs estimates) is little changed in early dealing and sits a touch off its highest level since 10 Aug. The measure is ~0.7% below the top of the band. Broader greenback trends continue to dominate flows as USD/SGD continues to edge lower while narrow ranges persist. The pair is a touch lower this morning and last prints at $1.3560/65. July CPI printed at 4.1% Y/Y a touch below the estimated 4.2%, core CPI was in line with expectations at 3.8% Y/Y.
  • Comments from Philippines Finance Secretary Diokno have crossed the wires. Diokno states he is confident BSP can cut the policy rate by Q1 next year, as inflation will hit the lower end of the 2-4% target range by then. Note he also sits on the BSP board. USD/PHP sits slightly higher now, last at 56.65/70, (+0.55% for the session). Comments around confidence in a Q1 cut next year may be weighing, although broader USD sentiment has stabilized somewhat, so that may also be a factor. Yesterday lows in the pair came in around 56.10.
  • USD/THB is holding sub 35.00, last near 34.90, slightly down for the session. Moves up to 35.00 are generally drawing selling interest. Srettha has been confirmed as Thailand PM by the Prime Minister. Focus is now likely to shift to how the new government revives economic growth, which slowed in Q2.

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