MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, November 11

MNI BRIEF: China Oct M2 Rises To Seven-Month High

MNI BRIEF: Japan Oct Sentiment, Outlook Indexes Both Fall

CHINA YTD NEW LOANS CNY16.52 TRLN VS MEDIAN CNY16.7 TRLN: PBOC

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY116.4 Bln via OMO Monday

MNI BRIEF: PBOC Has Room For More Easing : Research Head

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: NE, UK, DE Auction on Tuesday

MNI: NORWAY OCT CORE CPI +0.2% M/M, +2.7% Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY OCT CPI +0.6% M/M, +2.6% Y/Y

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

MNI EXCLUSIVE: German Turmoil Dashes EU's Joint-Funding Hopes -Officials

FED: Powell's Time Looks Up, Replacement Could Be Less Willing To Cut Rates?

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CNH: USD/CNH Holding Above 7.1400, Near 100-day EMA

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USD/CNH briefly tested above its 100-day EMA on Monday (near 7.1470), getting to 7.1498 before selling interest emerged. Post the Asia close on Monday dips towards 7.1350 were supported and we track near 7.1440 in early Tuesday dealings. CNH lost 0.15% for Monday's session. Onshore USD/CNY spot finished up at 7.1293. The CNY CFETS basket tracker was unchanged, last near 99.75.

  • Like USD/JPY, USD/CNH dips were supported on Monday as US yields remained supported. The US 2yr and 10yr yields hitting multi month highs. We have a busy data period coming up, along with next week's US Presidential election.
  • China yields remain comfortably off recent lows, but largely tracking sideways. It is a similar backdrop for equities, with markets seemingly in wait and see mode.
  • We have the top political body meeting in China Nov 4-8, with fresh fiscal stimulus details to potentially flow after this. This Thursday we have the official PMI prints as well for Oct, which may offer insight into early Q4 economic momentum in light of the stimulus measures enacted to date.
  • Our policy team noted yesterday that further rate cuts were likely and that the fiscal impulse is likely to be strong in coming years (see this link here and here). 
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USD/CNH briefly tested above its 100-day EMA on Monday (near 7.1470), getting to 7.1498 before selling interest emerged. Post the Asia close on Monday dips towards 7.1350 were supported and we track near 7.1440 in early Tuesday dealings. CNH lost 0.15% for Monday's session. Onshore USD/CNY spot finished up at 7.1293. The CNY CFETS basket tracker was unchanged, last near 99.75.

  • Like USD/JPY, USD/CNH dips were supported on Monday as US yields remained supported. The US 2yr and 10yr yields hitting multi month highs. We have a busy data period coming up, along with next week's US Presidential election.
  • China yields remain comfortably off recent lows, but largely tracking sideways. It is a similar backdrop for equities, with markets seemingly in wait and see mode.
  • We have the top political body meeting in China Nov 4-8, with fresh fiscal stimulus details to potentially flow after this. This Thursday we have the official PMI prints as well for Oct, which may offer insight into early Q4 economic momentum in light of the stimulus measures enacted to date.
  • Our policy team noted yesterday that further rate cuts were likely and that the fiscal impulse is likely to be strong in coming years (see this link here and here).