CNN-US Reluctant To See Ukraine Use Long-Range Missiles In Kursk

With Ukraine's military offensive into Russia's Kursk oblast continuing, there is increasing focus on the reaction of the West, and in turn how Moscow could respond to the West's reaction. Late on 15 August, CNN reportedthat the United States is 'reluctant' to allow Ukraine to use long-range US-provided weaponry, such as its ATACMS ballistic missiles, in Russian territory. This would chime with comments yesterday from the State Dep't (see 'SECURITY: US State Dept: No Change In Policy Regarding Cross-Border Attacks'', 1803BST 15 Aug).

• The report claims that according to unnamed US officials, this is, 'not because of the risk of escalation, but because the US only has a limited supply of the long-range missiles...to provide to Ukraine and thinks they would be better used to continue targeting Russian-occupied Crimea.'
• From a strategic point of view, the attack on Kursk also raises issues around the primary frontline in the Russo-Ukraine war in the Donbas in eastern Ukraine. CNN reports that "Some officials also raised concerns that Ukraine, which one western official said has sent some of its more experienced forces into Kursk, may have created weaknesses along its own frontlines that Russia may be able to exploit to gain more ground".
• If Ukraine does begin to deploy ATACMS or British-made Storm Shadow missiles against the wishes of Washington and London it would put both capitals in a bind (cutting off supply would significantly weaken Ukraine's defence capabilities). It would also bring more key Russian military and O&G infrastructure into the firing line.