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Collins Leans To 25bp Downshift In Feb For Flexibility Towards 5%

FED
  • Boston Fed’s Collins (non-voter) tells the NYT that she leans to a 25bp hike for the Feb 1 FOMC stage, as deliberation between a 25bp and 50bp hike seem “reasonable”, “but it’s very dependent”.
  • This is a step further from various FOMC member commentary of openness to 25bp or 50bp hikes without committing one way or another at this stage. 31.5bp is currently priced in Fed Funds futures ahead of tomorrow’s US CPI release.
  • “Adjusting slowly gives more time to assess the incoming data before we make each decision, as we get close to where we’re going to hold. Smaller changes give us more flexibility.”
  • "If we’ve gone to slower, more judicious rate increases, it could take us three rate increases to get there [just above 5%] — and then holding through the end of 2023, that still seems like a reasonable outlook to me,”
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